Politics

65% Now Expect Romney To Be The Republican Nominee

Voters are even more convinced that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney will be the Republican presidential nominee after his primary wins last week in Arizona and Michigan. Will Super Tuesday change that?

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 65% of Likely U.S. Voters believe Romney is likely to win the GOP nomination. That’s up from 54% a week earlier.  Just 14% expect Romney’s leading rival, former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum, to emerge as the party’s standard-bearer, down from 24% in the previous survey.

Only five percent (5%) think former House Speaker Newt Gingrich will be the Republican nominee, and four percent (4%) predict Texas Congressman Ron Paul will be the eventual winner. Three percent (3%) say some other candidate is likely to be nominated, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. These findings are little changed from those in late February. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 3-4, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

48% in Massachusetts Consider State's Health Care Reform A Success

More Massachusetts voters now think health care reform in the state has been successful, but just as many favor repeal of the national health care law passed into law two years ago.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Massachusetts Voters finds that 48% say health care reform in the Bay State has been a success. That's up from 26% in June 2009.  Twenty-eight percent (28%) think the reform effort has been a failure, down from 37% in the earlier survey. Almost as many (23%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Massachusetts was conducted on February 29, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Georgia GOP Primary: Gingrich 37%, Romney 27%, Santorum 18%, Paul 10%

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is still comfortably ahead in the Republican race in his native state of Georgia with tomorrow’s Super Tuesday primary just hours away.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Georgia Republican Primary Voters, taken last night, shows Gingrich with 37% of the vote to former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney’s 27%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum remains in third place with 18% support, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul runs last with 10%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are still undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Georgia survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 4, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

53% Favor Repeal of Health Care Law

While Congress continues to battle over President Obama’s contraceptive mandate, most voters still favor repeal of the national health care law.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 53% of Likely U.S. Voters at least somewhat favor repeal of the health care law, including 42% who Strongly Favor repeal.  Forty-two percent (42%) oppose repeal, with 30% who are Strongly Opposed.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 3-4, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Ohio GOP Primary: Santorum 32%, Romney 31%, Gingrich 13%, Paul 13%

Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney are tied in Ohio with the Super Tuesday primary vote just 24 hours away. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Ohio shows Santorum earning 32% support to Romney’s 31%. The survey was taken Sunday night. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Congressman Ron Paul run far behind, each with 13% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer another candidate, and six percent (6%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Ohio survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 4, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

Tennessee Primary: Santorum 34%, Romney 30%, Gingrich 18%, Paul 8%

Just two days before Super Tuesday, the Republican primary race in Tennessee has become a two-man competition between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. The first Rasmussen Reports survey of Likely GOP Primary Voters in Tennessee shows Santorum attracting 34% of the vote, while Romney earns 30%. Polls from other firms have previously shown Santorum with a large lead in the state.

This Tennessee survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 3, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls For The Week Ending March 3, 2012

Seven primaries, three caucuses. No wonder they call it Super Tuesday. Is it also Santorum’s last stand?

Three of the states are gimmes as far as Mitt Romney’s concerned – Massachusetts, Vermont and Virginia. Rick Santorum was miles ahead in Oklahoma less than two weeks ago. But back then he was also 18 points ahead in Ohio, probably the biggest prize of the day. Now the Buckeye State is a tossup - Santorum 33%, Mitt Romney 31%. 

Romney’s been surging since his wins this past Tuesday in the Arizona and Michigan primaries. The former Massachusetts governor now leads Santorum among Likely GOP Primary voters nationwide by a 40% to 24% margin.  This is Romney's biggest lead to date and the highest level of support any GOP candidate has earned in regular surveying of the race. Two weeks earlier, it was Santorum 39%, Romney 27%.

Rasmussen Reports will report new numbers out of Ohio on Monday to see if that surge is still evident.

25% Say U.S. Doesn't Spend Enough on Defense

Most voters recognize that the United States is the world leader in defense spending, but one-in-four still don’t think that’s enough.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 56% of Likely U.S. Voters correctly believe that the United States spends more on defense than any other nation. Only 15% disagree, but 29% are not sure. That's generally in line with findings since November 2010. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 24-25, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

72% Want Members of Congress Banned From Trading and Investing

Voters overwhelmingly believe congressmen leave Washington, D.C. wealthier than when they got there and want the law to do something about it. 

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds, in fact, that 79% of Likely U.S. Voters think members of Congress leave office wealthier than when they were first elected. Just five percent (5%) disagree and say they are not. Sixteen percent (16%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 28-29, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Georgia Primary: Gingrich 38%, Romney 26%, Santorum 20%, Paul 7%

Favorite son Newt Gingrich now holds a double-digit lead over his closest rival in the Georgia Republican Primary race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Georgia shows Gingrich with 38% support to former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney’s 26%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum now runs third with 20% of the vote, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul trails with seven percent (7%).  Three percent (3%) prefer another candidate, and six percent (6%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Georgia survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 1, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Obama Full-Month Approval Numbers Rise To Year-High

When tracking President Obama’s job approval on a daily basis, people sometimes get so caught up in the day-to-day fluctuations that they miss the bigger picture. To look at the longer-term trends, Rasmussen Reports compiles the numbers on a full-month basis, and the results can be seen in the graphics below.

Overall, approval of the president inched up further in February, continuing a trend first noted in January and last month resulting in his highest monthly approval index in one year.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night. The monthly numbers in this article are based on approximately 15,000 interviews each month with likely voters. The margin of sampling error is less than +/- 1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Massachusetts Senate: Brown (R) 49%, Warren (D) 44%

Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown, who won the 2010 special election to finish the term of the late Ted Kennedy, holds a modest lead over his expected Democrat challenger Elizabeth Warren in the first Rasmussen Reports’ look at his 2012 reelection bid in the Bay State.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Brown picking up 49% of the vote to Warren’s 44%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Massachusetts was conducted on February 29, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

National GOP: Romney 40%, Santorum 24%, Gingrich 16%, Paul 12%

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, coming off his primary wins in Arizona and Michigan, has jumped to a 16-point lead over Rick Santorum in the battle for the Republican presidential nomination. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters shows Romney with 40% support to 24% for the former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania. This is Romney's biggest lead to date and the highest level of support any GOP candidate has earned in regular surveying of the race. Two weeks ago, it was Santorum 39%, Romney 27%. 

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich earns 16% support, closely followed by Texas Congressman Ron Paul at 12%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided. The new findings mark virtually no change in national support for Gingrich and Paul. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 29, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

OHIO: Santorum 33%, Romney 31%, Gingrich 15%, Paul 11%

The Republican Primary race in Ohio is one of the biggest prizes on Super Tuesday, and it’s now a tossup. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Primary Voters in Ohio, taken last night, shows former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum attracting 33% of the vote and Mitt Romney earning 31%. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is now in third place with 15% of the vote, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul runs last with 11% support. Two percent (2%) prefer another candidate, and eight percent (8%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

This Ohio survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 1, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

54% in Wisconsin Oppose Recall of GOP Governor Walker

Most Wisconsin voters approve of the job embattled Governor Scott Walker is doing and oppose the effort to recall him from office before the next election.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that 52% of Likely Wisconsin Voters at least somewhat approve of Walker’s job performance to date, while 46% at least somewhat disapprove. These findings include 40% who Strongly Approve of how the Republican governor is doing and just as many (40%) who Strongly Disapprove. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Wisconsin was conducted on February 27, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

19% Support Increased U.S. Involvement In Syria

With violence escalating in Syria, few U.S. voters believe a change in the government there would be bad for America or Israel, but most continue to think the United States should not get involved.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows that only 19% believe the United States should get more directly involved in the Syrian crisis. That’s up from 12% last August and nine percent (9%) in May. However, 56% say the United States should leave the situation in Syria alone. Twenty-five percent (25%) are undecided. Opposition to increased U.S. involvement in Syria is down from 66% last August.(To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 26-27, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

54% Think Romney Most Likely To Be GOP Nominee

Before the ballots are cast in crucial primaries today in Arizona and Michigan, voters nationwide by better than two-to-one predict that Mitt Romney, not Rick Santorum, has the best shot at the Republican presidential nomination.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 54% of Likely U.S. Voters think the former Massachusetts governor is most likely to win the GOP nomination. Santorum is a distant second, with 24% who believe he has the best chance of being the party’s nominee. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 24-25, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Michigan GOP Primary: Romney 38%, Santorum 36%

Front-runners Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are in a virtual tie with the former Massachusetts governor up by just two points as the Michigan Republican Primary race comes down to the wire.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Michigan, taken Sunday night, finds Romney with 38% support to Santorum’s 36%. Texas Congressman Ron Paul and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich remain far behind with 11% and 10% of the vote respectively. One percent (1%) likes another candidate in the race, and five percent (5%) remains undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Michigan survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 26, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

39% Favor Free Health Care for All Americans

While the political debate continues over mandated free contraception for women, most voters now oppose the idea of free health care for all Americans. Opposition is even higher if voters are required to change their current insurance coverage to a government plan to make that free health care possible.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 39% of Likely U.S. Voters believe health care should be made available free to all Americans.  Fifty-one percent (51%) disagree and oppose universal free care. Eleven percent (11%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update ? If it's in the news, it's in our polls.) Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 20-21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

55% Oppose Affirmative Action Policies for College Admissions

The U.S. Supreme Court last week agreed to hear a case involving the use of race as a factor in college admissions. Most voters oppose the use of so-called affirmative action policies at colleges and universities and continue to believe those policies have not been successful despite being in place for 50 years.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 24% of Likely U.S. Voters favor applying affirmative action policies to college admissions. Fifty-five percent (55%) oppose the use of such policies to determine who is admitted to colleges and universities. Twenty-one percent (21%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The national telephone survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted February 22-23, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error for each survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.