Politics

Election 2012: Generic Republican 47%, Obama 43%

A generic Republican candidate now holds a four-point lead over President Obama in a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey for the short holiday week ending Friday, December 30, finds that 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would support the generic Republican candidate if the presidential election were held today, while 43% would vote for Obama. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 3,000 Likely Voters was conducted December 26-30, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Voters See All GOP Hopefuls As Conservative, But Romney, Paul Least So

Voters identify all of the leading Republican presidential contenders as ideological conservatives but see Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, the leaders in polls going into today’s Iowa Caucuses, as the least conservative of the group. 

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 56% of Likely U.S. Voters regard Romney as at least somewhat conservative, including 14% who say he’s Very Conservative.  Twenty-six percent (26%) say Romney’s a moderate. Only nine percent (9%) think the former Massachusetts governor is somewhat or very liberal, and another nine percent (9%) aren’t sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Obama Full-Month Approval Index Inches Up in December

When tracking President Obama’s job approval on a daily basis, people sometimes get so caught up in the day-to-day fluctuations that they miss the bigger picture. To look at the longer-term trends, Rasmussen Reports compiles the numbers on a full-month basis, and the results can be seen in the graphics below.

Overall, the president's numbers improved slightly in December, though he ends 2011 with a lower rating than he began it.

In December, 23% of voters Strongly Approved of the president’s job performance, up two points from the previous month.   The number who Strongly Disapproved of the president’s performance in December was at 40%, showing no change from November.

Only 32% Favor National Parade Now for Troops Returning from Iraq

Unlike U.S. troops returning from World War II and the Gulf war, the veterans coming home from the now-ended war in Iraq won’t be getting a national parade to honor their service, and most Americans agree the parade should wait until all troops are withdrawn from Afghanistan, too.

The latest Rasmussen reports national telephone survey finds that only 32% of American Adults believe a national parade should be held to honor the final U.S. troops returning home from Iraq. Fifty-five percent (55%) say instead that the parade should wait until all troops are brought home from Afghanistan as well. Just nine percent (9%) don’t think there should be any parade at all. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Adults nationwide was conducted on December 30, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

New High: 48% Say Most Members of Congress Are Corrupt

The belief that politicians use their office for personal gain is growing.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 48% of Likely U.S. Voters believe that most members of Congress are corrupt. Just 28% disagree, and another 24% are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on December 27-28, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

47% Expect GOP to Win White House, 39% Think Obama Will Win

Voters right now give the edge to Republicans when asked which political party is likely to win the White House and control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate in next November’s elections. Republicans are more confident about their party’s chances than Democrats are, but a lot of voters are undecided.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 47% of Likely U.S. Voters think the Republican candidate is most likely to beat President Obama, while 39% expect the incumbent to win reelection. Fourteen percent (14%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on December 27-28, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Iowa Caucus: Romney 23%, Paul 22%, Santorum 16%

After months of volatility, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul remain the front-runners in Iowa for the third week in a row with the state’s Republican caucus just five days away.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely GOP caucus participants finds Romney with 23% support to Paul’s 22%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum has moved into third place with 16%, his best showing to date, closely followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Governor Rick Perry who earn 13% of the vote each.

This Iowa survey of 750 Likely Republican Caucus Participants was conducted on December 28, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Voters Don't Expect Spending Cuts Under Either Party

Most voters don't believe government spending will go down if Republicans control both the White House and Congress, and they're sure spending will go up if Democrats are in charge of both branches of government.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 38% of Likely U.S. Voters believe government spending is likely to go down if a Republican is elected president and the GOP wins control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Twenty-six percent (26%) think spending will go up, and 29% predict that it will stay about the same. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on December 27-28, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

53% Still Favor Building Keystone XL Pipeline

Most voters continue to favor the building of an oil pipeline from Canada to Texas that congressional Republicans are prodding President Obama to approve in legislation passed last week. Republicans see the pipeline as a job creator, while Democrats view it as an environmental risk.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 53% of Likely U.S. Voters now at least somewhat favor building the Keystone XL pipeline. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on December 26, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

President Obama's Job Approval Faith Gap

Opinions about President Obama are divided sharply along lines of faith and religious participation.

New Rasmussen Reports national telephone surveying of Likely U.S. Voters shows that the president earns a job approval rating of 58% among those who rarely or never attend church or religious services. However, among those who attend services every week or nearly every week, just 38% offer their approval. Among those who attend more than one service a week, approval is even lower at 31%.

The survey of 6,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted from December 12-22, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 1 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

60% See Extending Social Security Payroll Tax Cut for Full Year As Good for Economy

Most voters agree that extending a 2% cut in the Social Security payroll tax for all of 2012 will be beneficial for the economy but won’t significantly impact their financial plans for the year. Congress signed off on a two-month extension of the tax cut last week but are hoping to extend it for all of 2012 when they reconvene after the holiday.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 60% of Likely U.S. Voters believe that if the payroll tax cut is extended for the full year of 2012, it will help the economy at least a little. That includes 22% who think it will help the economy a lot. Only 10% feel extending the tax cut will hurt the economy, with just four percent (4%) who think it will hurt a lot. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on December 26, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

60% Still See Government As The Problem, Political Class Disagrees

Political spats and elections come and go, but one thing most voters still agree on is that government is not the solution to their problems. Not surprisingly, the Political Class disagrees.

Ronald Reagan said it in his first inaugural address in January 1981: “Government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem,” and a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 60% of Likely U.S. Voters agree with the iconic president. Only 29% disagree with Reagan’s assessment, while 11% are undecided.

53% Call for Repeal of Health Care Law

Most voters still want to repeal the national health care law, even though they tend to believe the law won’t force them to change their own health insurance coverage.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 55% of Likely U.S. Voters at least somewhat favor repeal of the health care law passed by Congress in March 2010, while 35% at least somewhat oppose repeal. The intensity remains on the side of the law’s opponents since these findings include 42% who Strongly Favor repeal versus 26% who are Strongly Opposed. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on December 10-11, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending December 24, 2011

The vast majority of Americans celebrate tomorrow as Christmas, and most of those folks recognize the day as a celebration of the birth of Jesus Christ.  It’s a time to pause momentarily even as the news hurtles on in places as remote as North Korea and as near as Iowa where the race for the presidency gathers steam.

For a sizable number of adults, the last couple days have been panic time. As of Friday morning, 38% hadn’t finished their holiday shopping, and 18% hadn’t even started yet. Still, there’d been a lot of shopping going since Monday when 57% hadn’t finished and 26% had yet to start. 

More toys may have been on the shopping list, too. Just 41% of American Adults are even somewhat concerned about the safety of most toys being sold this holiday season, down from 51% a year ago. 

The number of adults who expect to travel away from home during the holiday season has slowly increased in recent years, but half still say the current economy makes them less likely to do so.

12% See Change of Leadership in North Korea As Good for the United States

Voters are not optimistic about the change in leadership in communist North Korea, and many are concerned that it will lead to war between North Korea and South Korea.  Voters doubt that the change in leadership will produce major changes in North Korea. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 14% of Likely Voters think it is even somewhat likely that North Korea will become a free, democratic and peaceful nation over the next few years.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on December 20-21, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

60% Say U.S. Society Fair and Decent, 28% Disagree

Most voters continue to believe U.S. society is fair and decent but only a third think that President Obama agrees. 

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 60% of Likely Voters think society in this country is fair and decent. Twenty-eight percent (28%) disagree and feel American society is unfair and discriminatory.  Another 12% are not sure.

In Iowa, Romney Tops List for Second Choice Support

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is leading in Iowa and he is also getting a bit more second choice support than other candidates.

Data released yesterday shows that Romney currently is on top in Iowa with 25% support followed by Texas Congressman Ron Paul at 20% and Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 17%. When asked in the same survey about their second choice, 16% pick Romney, 14% name Gingrich, 14% offer former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, and 13% say Texas Governor Rick Perry. Congresswoman Michele Bachmann is the second choice for 10%, Ron Paul for nine percent (9%) and Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman for four percent (4%).

Iowa: Romney 25% Paul 20% Gingrich 17%

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Texas Congressman Ron Paul are leading the pack in Iowa with just two weeks to go until Caucus Day. But large numbers of voters remain uncommitted and lots could change between now and January 3.

The new Rasmussen Reports survey of Iowa caucus participants shows Romney on top with 25% of the vote followed by Paul at 20% and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 17%. Texas Governor Rick Perry and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, both at 10%, are the only other candidates in double-digits.  Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann earns six percent (6%), former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman four percent (4%), while one percent (1%) prefer some other candidate and eight percent (8%) are not sure.

45% Consider Medicare A Good Deal for Working Americans

Most voters continue to question whether they will get the Medicare benefits they are entitled to, and nearly one-out-of-three is willing to raise taxes to ensure that they do.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 30% of Likely U.S. Voters now favor raising taxes to make sure that Medicare has enough money to pay all promised benefits. Thirty-three percent (33%) think it’s better to raise the eligibility age for Medicare benefits while 14% feel cutting the promised level of benefits to ensure Medicare has enough money is the best option. A sizable 22% are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on December 18-19, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

34% Oppose Welcoming Immigration Policy

A third of American voters oppose an immigration policy that keeps out only criminals, national security threats and those who come to live off America’s welfare system because they don’t think it’s restrictive enough.

Still, a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 52% of Likely U.S. Voters favor a welcoming immigration policy with only those restrictions.